Market Update Nov-25-2009 (Before the Bell)

As we indicated before, the market is moving inverse to U.S. dollar. As the value of U.S. dollar decreases, the price for stocks and gold is going high. Overnight price of U.S. Dollar Index Futures (/DX) was going down. So far it has made a 52 week low of 74.67 today morning at 5:00 A.M.

Gold Futures (/GC) made a 52 week high of 1,181.90 at 5:00 AM. As the dollar goes down, it is making new highs. But so far it looks like MACD is showing a negative divergence for gold futures in the hourly chart. This divergence is still not visible in daily chart.

As this is happening, E-mini S&P 500 (/ES) made a high of 1,109.49 at 3:00 A.M. It is below the previous high of 1,111 made on Nov-23-2009. At 5:00 A.M. when dollar made new lows, e-mini failed to make a new high.

Over all as the dollar is losing its value, it is having less of an impact on gold and stocks. Wave count at this moment is not very clear. As this is a short week, we were expecting some bullish corrective wave to happen with low volume. This could be wave 4, or a wave 5 ending triangle. We will wait for a pivot top to be made to for the bearish trend to start.